US Revises up Oil Price Forecasts for 2018, 2019

The U.S.' Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised up oil price forecasts for 2018 and 2019, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for September released on Tuesday.

Price estimates for both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are revised up by $1 per barrel for this year, compared to last month's report, according to the EIA data.

International benchmark Brent crude is now expected to average $73 a barrel in 2018, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is estimated to average $67 a barrel. In August's STEO, Brent was anticipated to average $72 a barrel this year, while WTI was expected to average $66 per barrel.

Both benchmarks' price expectation for 2019 are also revised up by $3 a barrel, compared to the last month's report. Brent crude is anticipated to average $74 a barrel in 2018, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is estimated to average $68 a barrel.

"Significant declines in some emerging market currencies may have contributed to increased concerns about global economic growth and its potential impact on oil demand," the EIA said in its STEO for September.

"EIA estimates that global petroleum inventories declined by almost 0.4 million barrels per day in August, the seventh consecutive month of net inventory withdrawals," it added.

-US crude output forecast revised down

The EIA revised down the U.S.' crude oil production forecast for 2019 by 0.2 million barrels per day (mbpd). Crude output in the country is now estimated to average 11.5 mbpd in 2019 compared to the average 11.7 mbpd projected in August's report.

Meanwhile, the EIA kept the U.S.' crude oil production forecast for 2018 unchanged at 10.7 mbpd. The U.S.' crude oil production averaged 9.4 mbpd last year.
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