The fast changing gas market scenery in SE Europe on account of LNG’s relentless penetration into local energy markets and the pivotal role of gas in decarbonizing most Balkans countries, emerged as key discussion areas in IENE’s latest Webinar which was held on July 8. Participants in the Webinar included some of the region’s top experts and senior executives. Mr. Milan Zdravković,DSO Executive Director from JP SRBIJAGAS, Serbia, Mr. Julian Bowden, Senior Visiting Research Fellow from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK, Ms. Boyana Achovski, Secretary General from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Belgium, Dr. Charles Ellinas, Senior Fellow from the Atlantic Council, UK and IENE’s Senior Research Associate, Mr. David Tonge, Director from IBS Research & Consultancy, Turkey and Mr. John Roberts, Energy Security Specialist from Scotland, UK took active part in a wide ranging discussion which lasted 1 ½ hours and can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohFh49fzs1o&t=1s.
At the Webinar which was moderated by IENE’s Chairman Mr. Costis Stambolis a number of key issues were raised which included the following:
- What will be energy markets response as Europe is slowly getting out of the deep freeze and what will be the impact on prices which right now are at record low level? To what extent do we expect gas demand to rebound next year?
- How is Europe’s heavily promoted Green Deal going to affect gas market prospects? Is the Green Deal an existential threat to European gas markets?
- At what point and how do we expect Green Gas to emerge as a real alternative in European gas supply?
- Since the start of the year we observe the accelerated inroads of LNG in SEE’s gas markets where gas delivered via pipelines has nosedived. What is the outlook? How is competition from LNG going to affect deliveries via Turk Stream and TAP?
- EU’s looming embargo against gas project financing is already causing a lot of consternation and furor as companies are told that EIB and EBRD are not prepared to consider any funding for new infrastructure projects in the region. However, a number of major projects are either under construction or at advanced planning stage and hence the dilemmas and challenges in energy policy and strategic direction are only likely to grow.
In debating the above issues the participants noted the big divide between north and south since gas transmission and distribution in northern Europe is a solved problem (apart from Nord Stream2) whereas in Central and SE Europe gas markets are still in the making and require additional infrastructure. Inspite of the present difficulties, especially the market drop in demand estimated at around 8 – 10% in most countries in the region, the panelists generally agreed that at least in the medium term gas demand is going to rebound by end of the year early in 2021. However, they further agreed that deep uncertainties remain on the long term.
Hellenic Petroleum, Greece's leading energy group active in SE Europe and Terna Energy SA, a well known pioneer company in renewables active in three continents, were the official sponsors of this IENE webinar.
