The following are the highlights of IEA’s May 2015 Oil Μarket Report released today:
- Oil prices rallied in April and early May despite persistently high global supply and continued stock builds. Slowing US LTO supplies pushed NYMEX WTI prices 14% higher in April vs. March, roughly twice the increase in ICE Brent. At the time of writing, NYMEX WTI was trading at about $60.30/bbl. ICE Brent was around $66.30/bbl.
- Despite slowing US LTO output, global oil supply growth remained at a steep 3.2mb/d year-on-year in April. At 95.7mb/d, total oil supplies were flat from March as higher OPEC output offset a drop in non-OPEC. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2015is projected at 830kb/d, up by 200kb/d since last month's Report.
- OPEC crude supply rose by 160kb/d to 31.21mb/d in April - the highest since September 2012, and nearly 1.4mb/d above a year earlier - as Iraq and Iran boosted output and top exporter Saudi Arabia held flows above 10mb/d. Upward revisions to non-OPEC supply lower the call on OPEC by 0.3mb/d for 2H15, to 30mb/d.
- Global oil demand growth is projected at 1.1mb/d for 2015, to 93.6mb/d, up from 0.7mb/d in 2014. The forecast is unchanged since last month as an improving economic outlook for Europe and a cold winter lift projections of OECD demand but offset reduced expectations for the FSU, the Middle East and Latin America.
- Global refinery crude runs are expected to dip seasonally to 77.8mb/d in 2Q15, from 78.2mb/d in 1Q15. Estimates for both 1Q15and 2Q15have been lifted markedly since last month's Report on robust runs in Asia and Europe. Annual gains, of 1.4mb/d for both 1Q15and 2Q15, largely shift to the non-OECD region in 2Q15.
- OECD industry oil stocks rose counter-seasonally in March by 38.4mb, led by UScrude. Refined products meanwhile inched lower and by end-month covered 30.3days of forward demand, level with a month earlier. Preliminary data indicate OECD stocks continued on an upward trend, building by 35.8mb in April.
