The following are the highlights of IEA’s March 2015 Oil Μarket Report released today:
- Crude oil prices stabilised following early‐February gains, with ICE Brent rising more than NYMEX WTI which was weighed down by swelling US stockpiles. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $58/bbl – up nearly 30% from a six‐year low in January. WTIwas at around $48/bbl.
- Having bottomed‐out in 2Q14, global oil demand growth has since steadily risen, with year‐on‐year gains estimated at around 0.9 mb/d for 4Q14 and 1.0 mb/d for 1Q15. The forecast of demand growth for 2015 as a whole has been raised by 75 kb/d to 1.0 mb/d, bringing global demand to an average 93.5 mb/d.
- Global supply rose by 1.3 mb/d year‐on‐year to an estimated 94 mb/d in February, led by a 1.4 mb/d gain in non‐OPEC. Declines in the US rig count have yet to dent North American output growth. Final December and preliminary 1Q15 data show higher‐than expected US crude supply, raising the 2015 North American outlook.
- OPEC crude output edged down by 90 kb/d in February to 30.22 mb/d, as losses in Libya and Iraq offset higher supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola. A slightly higher demand forecast has raised the 2H15 ‘call’ on OPEC crude to 30.3 mb/d, above the group’s
official 30 mb/d target.
- Global crude refinery throughputs estimates have been raised to 77.8 mb/d for 1Q15 and 77.3 mb/d for 2Q15, on sustained high margins and a slightly more robust oil demand outlook. Annual gains are forecast around 1.0 mb/d in 1H15, down from a sharp 2.2 mb/d in 4Q14, and in line with projected oil product demand growth.
- OECD commercial stocks rose by a weaker‐than‐average 23.1 mb in January, to 2 733 mb, trimming their surplus to average levels to 60.3 mb. US crude stocks rose to a record 72 mb surplus. Preliminary data show stocks drew by a weak 8.8 mb in February as extended US crude builds offset steep weather‐related product draws.
