OPEC forecast on Wednesday world oil demand in 2026 will rise at a similar rate to this year, while reducing its figure for 2024 for a sixth time, following economic weakness in China, the world's biggest importer of oil.
The 2026 forecast is in line with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' view oil use will rise for the next two decades, in contrast to the West's International Energy Agency that predicts it will peak this decade as the world shifts to cleaner energy.
OPEC, in a monthly report, said demand will rise by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, a similar rate to the growth of 1.45 million bpd expected this year. The 2026 prediction is OPEC's first in its monthly report.
"Transportation fuels are set to drive 2026 oil demand growth, with air travel expected to see continued expansion, as both international and domestic traffic continues to increase," OPEC said in the report.
A table in the report put 2024 demand growth at 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.61 million bpd listed in last month's report, amounting to a sixth consecutive cut in the 2024 forecast. In July 2024, OPEC expected world demand would rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024.
OPEC's view on demand is at the upper end of industry forecasts. Earlier on Wednesday, the IEA forecast slower world oil demand growth in 2025 of 1.05 million bpd.
(Reuters, January 15, 2025)
