No matter how interested Bulgaria is in pursuing the South Stream project, the outcome looks bleak, Stratfor writes in an analysis of Russian gas infrastructure plans. There are certainly reasons Bulgaria and Russia might choose to return to South Stream.
Firstly, Sofia "has remained open to the pipeline proposal", and secondly it has clearly stated its ambition to establish itself as a natural gas hub for Southeast Europe.
Stratfor recalls the December 11 meeting between Bulgaria's PM Boyko Borisov and his German counterpart Chancellor Angela Merkel and the EU Commission's subsequent agreement that a working group should be set up to support the hub project.
"Though each of these moves has put Bulgaria closer to achieving its new role in the region's energy market, it will still need to find other sources of natural gas to turn the dream of a Balkan energy hub into a reality. The South Stream project and the Russian natural gas it would carry could be one such source," Stratfor goes on, referring to the decision on December 10 to build the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria.
Stratfor mentiones rumors, already denied by both governments, that Russia has "resumed negotiations with Bulgaria over the defunct South Stream project".
"Every possible alternative" to the transit routes via Ukraine "faces significant political, economic or technical constraints," the analysis reads.
"With Russian energy giant Gazprom in financial distress and the European Union determined to break the firm's near-monopoly hold in Central and Eastern Europe, fiscal pragmatism may force the Kremlin to re-evaluate its ambitious energy goals."
With diplomatic ties between Moscow and Ankara turning sour after the downing of a Russian Su-24 plane near the Turkey-Syria border, Turkish Stream is now also a stalled project, and recent developments are "prompting Gazprom to turn to other options, including South Stream and Nord Stream II".
However, Sofia and Moscow would need the approval of transit countries such as Serbia, Hungary and Italy and to get Turkery's endorsement for South Stream, with Gazprom also in need to look for new stakeholders.
